Wildfire Risk and Homeowners Insurance in Rim Country
By Dennis Riccio, President, Central Arizona Association of REALTORS®
The Rim Country housing market is showing a noticeable cooling in July 2025 compared to the frenzied pace of last year. Inventory levels have risen in key areas like Payson and Pine-Strawberry, sales volumes are modestly lower or flat, and prices are adjusting to a more balanced market environment. Below is a breakdown of the latest MLS stats for each zip code (85541, 85544, 86024, 85928) and insights on what these trends mean for local Realtors.
85541 (Payson) – Sales: 53 homes sold in July, exactly the same as July 2024[1]. Median Sale Price: $395,000, which is −13.8% year-over-year (was $458,000 in July 2024)[2]. Average Sale Price: $544,213, only slightly lower (−1.7% YoY)[2]. Days on Market (DOM): Homes spent a median of 83 days on market versus 64 days last July[3], indicating a slower turnover. New Listings: 76 new listings hit the market in July, down about 12.6% from the 87 listed in July 2024[4]. Active Inventory: 329 homes were on the market at month-end, up +18% from 278 a year prior[5] – a significant inventory increase giving buyers more options.
85544 (Pine–Strawberry) – Sales: 9 homes sold in July, a sharp drop (−55% YoY) from 20 sales in July 2024[6]. Median Sale Price: $500,000, up +16.7% year-over-year (median was $428,500 last July)[7] – this jump likely reflects a larger share of higher-end cabin sales in this small sample. Average Sale Price: $510,009, down −2.8% YoY[8] despite the higher median – indicating a mix of both high and low-end sales. DOM: Median 90 days on market, nearly double last July’s 48 days[9], so properties are taking significantly longer to sell. New Listings: 18 new listings in July, down one-third from 27 in July 2024[10]. Active Inventory: 109 active listings at July’s end, a +42% surge from 77 a year ago[11]. This large inventory build in Pine-Strawberry, combined with fewer sales, points to a much cooler market this summer.
86024 (Happy Jack) – Sales: 6 homes sold in July, down from 8 the previous July (−25%)[12]. Median Sale Price: $492,500, up +21% YoY (from $407,000)[13] – a big increase, though with low sales counts, medians can swing with just one high-value cabin sale. Average Sale Price: $501,798, up +5.3% YoY[14], in line with the higher median. DOM: Median 85 days on market vs 52 last year[15], showing a slower market tempo. New Listings: 5 new listings in July, identical to last July[16]. Active Inventory: 48 active listings at month-end, up 20% from 40 last year[17]. Despite fewer July sales, Happy Jack’s inventory growth is moderate and months of supply remains high (see absorption rates below).
85928 (Heber–Overgaard) – Sales: Very few transactions – only 6 homes have sold year-to-date through mid-August[18] (approximately 1–2 of those likely closed in July). With such low volume, monthly statistics can be skewed. External market data indicates the median listing price in the Heber-Overgaard area was around $359,500 in July (about +1% YoY) and homes that did sell had a median sold price roughly in the $439,000 range[19]. DOM: Properties are taking longer to sell here as well – averaging ~89 days on market recently, compared to ~68 days last year[20]. Inventory: Active supply is extremely limited (just 2 listings were on the market in mid-August)[18], so buyers have very few choices. This niche sub-market tends to have higher-priced cabins and ranch properties, and the minimal sales (and inventory) can lead to big swings in reported prices (for example, one luxury sale can spike the median). Overall, Heber–Overgaard remains a small but high-priced segment with low liquidity.
Looking at January–July 2025 closings, the Rim Country’s performance by area is mixed but generally a bit softer than the same period in 2024:
Figure: Housing Supply (Months of Inventory) by area, comparing July 2025 vs. July 2024. Higher bars indicate more months of supply (slower absorption). Pine–Strawberry’s supply jumped to ~8.6 months (from 6.5)[25], and Payson rose to ~7.0 months (from 5.9)[26]. Happy Jack actually saw months’ supply decrease* slightly to 9.9 (from 10.4)[27], but it still has the highest supply in the region. More inventory and fewer sales have expanded months of inventory in most of Rim Country, mirroring national trends – U.S. active listings were up 24.8% year-over-year in July[28]. Buyers have more choice now than last summer, and if no new listings were added, it would take roughly 7–10 months to sell the current inventory at the recent sales pace (versus about 5–7 months a year ago). This is a clear shift toward a slower absorption rate, inching the market from a seller’s market toward a balanced one.
Inventory & New Listings: Every Zip code in Rim Country now has more homes on the market than a year ago. Pine-Strawberry and Payson in particular saw large inventory jumps as of July (+41.6% and +18% active listings YoY, respectively)[11][5]. New listings in July were actually down from last year in those areas (sellers weren’t flooding the market so much as existing listings just aren’t selling as fast), but year-to-date new listing counts are flat to slightly up. The net result is that total inventory has accumulated. This is consistent with the broader West region of the U.S., which leads the nation in inventory gains and “market slowdowns” (homes taking longer to sell, more price cuts)[29]. For example, Pine-Strawberry now has over 8 months of inventory (vs ~4–5 months last year YTD)[25]. Payson is at ~6 months YTD (vs ~4.6 last year)[26]. In short, compared to 2024, there are far more listings relative to the number of buyers – easing the extreme seller’s market conditions we saw previously.
Home Prices: Price trends are mixed year-over-year, with median prices up in some spots and down in others. July’s median sale price was lower YoY in Payson (–13.7%)[30], essentially flat in Pine-Strawberry if you smooth out the volatility (YTD median only –2% vs last year[7]), and notably higher in Happy Jack for the month (+21% YoY in July)[13]. These swings often reflect the composition of sales – e.g. Pine had fewer low-end cabin sales this July, raising its median, while Payson had more sub-$400k homes sell, pulling its median down. Overall, when looking at the year-to-date median prices, they are relatively stable: Payson’s median YTD = $420k (exactly the same as last year)[2]; Pine-Strawberry = $474,950 (just ~$10k below last year)[7]; Happy Jack = $529k (down from $569.5k)[13]. The average prices YTD are down a bit more (likely due to fewer luxury sales): e.g. Pine’s average is –10%[8], Payson –2.3%[2]. In summary, prices are no longer soaring – they’ve plateaued and even dipped in some segments – but we’re not seeing drastic depreciation either. It’s a gradual correction from the pandemic-era highs, not a crash. Notably, list prices have started to reflect this new reality: the average list price of actives in Payson is about 5–6% lower than a year ago[31], suggesting sellers are adjusting expectations.
Days on Market: Homes are taking longer to sell compared to last year. July DOM increased by a few weeks across the board: for example, Payson’s median DOM was 83 days (vs 64 last July)[3], and Pine-Strawberry’s was 90 days (vs just 48 last year)[32]. Year-to-date, the average DOM for sold listings has risen to ~113 days in Pine (was 104 in 2024)[9] and ~109 days in Payson (was 92)[33]. Even fast-turnover markets like Payson are seeing buyers take a bit more time and perhaps more listings getting re-priced before selling. This reflects a return to a more normal pace where a home might take 2–3 months (or more) to find the right buyer, instead of being snapped up in a few weeks. By comparison, the national median time on market in July was 58 days (about a week longer than a year ago)[34] – our region’s DOM is higher than that, which is typical for a second-home/rural market. The rise in DOM goes hand-in-hand with the inventory build-up – with more choices and less urgency, buyers are not racing to bid as quickly as before.
Inventory Pressure & Pricing Strategies: The increase in inventory and months of supply means buyers have more choices and leverage than they’ve had in recent years. As Realtors, we need to counsel our sellers that the market isn’t as “instant” as it was – expect longer marketing times and be prepared for negotiation. Over 20% of listings nationally had price reductions in July[35], and we’re seeing price cuts locally as well (e.g. roughly that same percentage of listings in the Overgaard area have had price drops recently). Homes in Pine-Strawberry are selling for about 94.5% of list price on average[22], meaning sellers are conceding ~5% on price to get deals done (a notable change from the near-100% or above-list sales during the peak market). Pricing a listing right the first time is crucial now – buyers are more discriminating. Encourage your sellers to look at the recent comps and price competitively, rather than testing the top of the market. With more competing listings, the best-priced and best-presented homes will attract the most attention. Staging, curb appeal, and proactive marketing are back in play as important factors, since we can’t rely on a feeding-frenzy market to sell every listing immediately.
Buyer Demand & Client Guidance: Buyer activity has cooled somewhat – we see slightly fewer pending sales in the pipeline in 2025 (Payson’s pendings are down about 7% YTD)[36], and nationwide pending home sales are about 3% lower than last year[34]. Higher mortgage rates (hovering around ~6.5–7% this summer[37]) have kept some buyers on the sidelines. For your active buyers though, this market is a welcome change: they have breathing room to shop around and less competition when making offers. It’s a more balanced market now – perhaps even slightly buyer-favored in areas like Pine-Strawberry where inventory has spiked. Advise your buyers that while they have more negotiating power (e.g. asking for repairs or closing cost credits is realistic again), well-priced homes in good condition will still sell relatively quickly. Encourage them to take advantage of the wider selection – but also remind them that clean, reasonably strong offers are still important, because the best properties may still garner multiple interested parties even if not full bidding wars.
Overall, Rim Country’s real estate landscape in mid-2025 is transitioning to a healthier equilibrium. After the rapid run-ups and scant supply of the past few years, we’re moving into a phase of more normalized demand and supply. This means our skills as real estate professionals – accurate pricing, savvy marketing, and adept negotiation – are more important than ever. It’s a collegial market where buyers and sellers can find win-win solutions: buyers can finally find options and not overpay, while sellers who adapt to the new market realities can still achieve good outcomes (especially given that prices are generally holding near last year’s levels). By staying on top of these trends and setting the right expectations with our clients, we can successfully navigate the shifting Rim Country market together in the coming months.
Sources: Central Arizona Board of Realtors MLS (July 2025 Market Statistics)[1][6][12][18]; Realtor.com® Housing Trends Summary (July 2025)[28][34]; Movoto/Redfin market data for Heber–Overgaard[19]; MortgageReports.com (average 30-year mortgage rates, Aug 2025)[37].
[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [26] [30] [31] [33] [36] July 85541 MLS Stats.pdf
file://file-WopwJcGjuuvTs942ngRJJL
[6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [23] [25] [32] July 85544 MLS Stats.pdf
file://file-1aGDEnBA8QdssaJhdHW3Xb
[12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [27] July 86024 MLS Stats.pdf
file://file-LBFJb77uWshQkTE7FAuLPy
[18] [21] [22] [24] Year to date activity report.pdf
file://file-VuQCSrA9yYEfhFfXFVoSGP
[19] [20] Overgaard, AZ Market Trends – Movoto
https://www.movoto.com/overgaard-az/market-trends/
[28] [29] [34] [35] July 2025 Housing Market Trends Report—Realtor.com Research
https://www.realtor.com/research/july-2025-data/
[37] Mortgage Rates Today, August 15, 2025
https://themortgagereports.com/mortgage-rates-now/mortgage-rates-today-august-15-2025
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