Rim Country Real Estate Gains National Spotlight in the Wall Street Journal
By Dennis Riccio, President, Central Arizona Association of REALTORS®
I hope this message finds you well. As we head into Q4 2025, I want to share a comprehensive overview of our Rim Country housing market, focusing on eight key areas: Pine-Strawberry, Happy Jack, Payson, Christopher Creek, Tonto Basin, Houston Mesa, Star Valley, and Control Road. The data from September 2025 (with year-to-date comparisons vs 2024) reveal a market transitioning toward more balanced or buyer-favored conditions in most areas. Inventory has generally risen while the pace of sales has cooled, leading to higher months’ supply (absorption rates) and longer days on market. Notably, median sale prices remain relatively resilient. We aren’t seeing a crash, but rather small dips or even gains depending on the community and the mix of properties sold. On average, sellers are still achieving about 95–97% of their list prices at closing, but it often requires accurate pricing from the start and more patience. Buyers, meanwhile, have more choices and bargaining power than a year ago. Below is a breakdown by area, followed by a summary table and some strategic insights for the coming quarter.
Absorption Rate: Pine and Strawberry now have around 7–8 months of inventory, up from roughly 5–6 months last year. This swing firmly places these communities in buyer’s market territory (anything over ~6 months is considered excess supply). In Pine, the absorption rate jumped to 7.6 months (from 5.7), while Strawberry is about 7.8 months (was 6.3) (see chart below). This means buyers have many more options to choose from, and homes are no longer selling quickly.
Months of Inventory: Pine vs. Strawberry (Sep 2024 vs Sep 2025). Both towns have significantly higher months’ supply now, indicating a shift toward a buyer’s market.
Prices: The median sale price in Pine spiked to $485,000 in Sep 2025, a +43% surge over last September. However, this jump is misleading. Only 4 homes sold in Pine in Sep, and a couple of higher-end cabin sales skewed that median upward. (Year-to-date, Pine’s median is around $500K, just ~+2% vs last year.) In Strawberry, by contrast, only 1 home sold this September, so its median sale price of $369,900 came in –24% lower than last year’s $490K. Important: these large percentage changes do not mean property values fell or rose that dramatically – it’s the tiny sample size at play. Overall, pricing is relatively flat in Pine/Strawberry if you look at the full year: Pine’s YTD median is up +2%, and Strawberry’s is up ~+15% YTD (because some high-end sales occurred earlier in the year). The average sale price in September further illustrates volatility: Pine’s was $601K (+72% YoY), while Strawberry’s was $370K (–29% YoY). Again, driven by which cabins sold. The key message to sellers is to price realistically despite these eye-catching stats. Agents should help clients understand that overall values remain stable, despite headline-grabbing month-to-month median fluctuations driven by small sample sizes.
Days on Market (DOM): Homes are sitting much longer on average than last year. Pine’s average DOM doubled to ~109 days (median 110 days) vs ~53 days last year. Strawberry’s latest sale had a median DOM of 85 days, down from 143 last year, though with so few sales the “typical” DOM is hard to pin down. Generally, expect 3–5+ months to find a buyer for cabins in this area now. Well-priced, move-in-ready cabins might sell faster, but many listings are lingering.
List-to-Sell Ratio: Despite slower movement, sale prices are still averaging about 95–97% of list in Pine-Strawberry. For example, the median sold-to-list in Pine last quarter was ~97.6%. Sellers can still achieve near their asking price if they price correctly at the outset. If not, the property may sit and eventually sell at a discount. Buyers can negotiate more these days, but should not expect fire-sale prices on quality cabins; discounted deals tend to be on those that were overpriced initially or need work.
Strategy: For Sellers: The fall market requires patience and competitive pricing. There are ~91 active listings now between Pine and Strawberry (vs ~72 a year ago, +26% inventory), so your cabin is competing with many others. Make it stand out on price and condition. Don’t be discouraged if it takes a few months to sell; that’s normal now. For Buyers: Advise buyers that the current high inventory levels provide them leverage to evaluate multiple properties and negotiate strategically, especially on listings with longer DOM. That said, if a cabin has everything a buyer wants and is priced fairly, don’t wait too long. The best values still get snatched up, and we saw a handful of new listings go under contract in under 30 days in these communities.
Absorption Rate: Encouraging news: Happy Jack’s market absorption (months of inventory) improved to 8.3 months in Sep 2025, from about 10.1 months last year. While 8+ months is still a buyer’s market by definition, it’s better than the extreme oversupply we saw before. This improvement is due to a slight uptick in sales combined with only a modest rise in listings. The chart below highlights this positive trend:
Happy Jack – Absorption Rate fell from ~10.1 to ~8.3 months of supply (Sep 2024 vs Sep 2025). More sales and steady inventory helped balance this remote cabin market.
Sales & Inventory: 5 homes sold in Happy Jack in Sep 2025 vs 4 last September, and year-to-date 32 sales closed vs 28 in 2024 (+14%). This modest demand increase, coupled with roughly the same number of active listings (~40–45 on the market), has eased the glut. Currently there are about 43 active listings (vs ~38 last fall, +13%), still plenty of choices for buyers, but not dramatically more than before.
Prices: The median sale price last month was $552,000, up +6.1% from $520K a year ago. Year-to-date, Happy Jack’s median is basically flat (about $529K vs $530K last YTD). So prices have inched up slightly, bucking the trend of declines seen elsewhere. This suggests the market is finding equilibrium: sellers aren’t slashing prices, and buyers are willing to pay a premium for the right off-grid cabin. Average prices show a similar tiny gain (~+5% YoY). List-to-sell ratios are healthy, Homes sold around 96% of list price on average (median SP/LP 96.0%).
Days on Market: One notable improvement, days on market dropped for recent sales. The median DOM for September sales was ~74 days vs 123 days last year (according to internal analysis), meaning some new listings found buyers faster. However, the average DOM YTD is still high at ~118 days, indicating a mix: a few cabins sold quick, but others still lingered for many months. This tells us that well-priced cabins in good condition can attract offers in 2–3 months, whereas overpriced or less desirable ones still sit. In the detailed breakdown, nearly 25% of sales happened within 60 days on market, an encouraging sign.
Strategy: For Sellers: Recognize that while conditions are improving, buyers remain price-sensitive. The quickest sales have come when sellers priced at market value; those listings often saw offers within a month or two. If your property hasn’t moved in 3+ months, consider a price adjustment or improvements. Highlight the unique features (solar power systems, acreage, etc.) that set your cabin apart. Niche buyers will pay for value. For Buyers: Happy Jack offers bargaining opportunities, as 8 months of inventory is still plenty of supply. You likely won’t face bidding wars as in past years. Encourage clients to act promptly on well-maintained, fairly priced cabins. These continue to move faster even in a buyer-friendly market. Overall, this area looks a bit more balanced than last year, but it’s still buyer-friendly so enjoy that position, but don’t sleep on a great deal when it appears.
Absorption Rate: As the largest Rim Country town, Payson’s market sets the tone for the region. We now have about 6.9 months of supply in Payson, up from roughly 6.0 months last year. That’s a 14–15% increase in months’ inventory, tipping Payson toward a balanced/buyer-leaning market. It’s not an extreme change. Think of it as the frenzy cooling to a normal pace. Homes aren’t flying off the shelf, but neither are they languishing en masse. Buyers have more breathing room than in 2024, and sellers face a bit more competition.
Inventory & Sales: Active listings are up significantly. There are about 192 homes on the market across Payson now, versus ~157 this time last year (roughly +22% more inventory YoY). The increase in listings gives buyers considerably more choice. You’ll notice more yard signs around town. Meanwhile, September sales slowed: we saw 26 closings in Sep 2025, down from ~43 in Sep 2024. Year-to-date, Payson has 271 sales vs 297 last year (–8.7%), so the volume is a bit behind. Fewer sales + more listings = higher inventory months-supply, as noted above. In practical terms, buyers can afford to look at multiple properties now rather than having to jump on the first one. Sellers may experience fewer showings and longer waits for offers.
Payson – Active Listings jumped from ~157 to ~192 properties for sale (Sep 2024 vs Sep 2025), an increase of about 22%. More inventory has cooled competition among buyers.
Prices: The median sale price in Payson is holding around $420,000 (for Sep 2025), which is about 5% lower than last year’s median (~$440K). This softening is partly due to the mix of homes – last year had more high-end sales in the sample. For instance, Northeast Payson had several $1M+ sales in 2024 that inflated medians, whereas this year those were fewer. Year-to-date median for Payson as a whole is roughly $415K–$420K, only slightly down from ~$440K (mid-single-digit percentage dip). Average prices are similarly down a tad (Sep average ~$405K vs $445K last year in Payson’s main zip, for example). The key point is values in Payson are nudging down, not plummeting. Buyers aren’t overbidding anymore, and luxury sales have slowed, which all contributes to flatter prices. However, well-kept homes in good locations continue to retain value. We’re not seeing steep discounts there.
Days on Market: Homes are taking longer to sell on average. The typical Payson home now spends about 3.5–4 months on market. In September, the average DOM was ~120 days for sold listings, versus closer to 90–95 days a year ago. That’s an extra 3–4 weeks of waiting, on average. The median DOM is around 2.5 months now (up from ~2 months). This isn’t surprising with more inventory; buyers have the luxury to be deliberate. Some sub-markets differ: e.g., Northwest Payson’s median DOM remained around ~2.5 months (pretty steady), while Southeast Payson’s jumped due to its surge in supply. The takeaway is that sellers should budget at least 90–120 days to secure a contract in many cases. Proper pricing and staging can still yield quicker sales (some homes still sell in under a month), but that’s the exception now, not the rule.
List-to-Sell Ratio: Despite the slower market, sellers are still getting about 96–97% of their asking price on average in Payson. This ratio has only slipped a little from the ultra-hot market days. It tells us that while buyers might not be engaging in bidding wars, they also aren’t seeing huge price cuts on good homes. Instead, negotiations typically result in a small discount off list. One interesting trend: homes that sell quickly (in <30 days) often get 98–99% of list, whereas those on the market 4+ months tend to sell around 94% of list. Price it right early, and you likely won’t have to concede much.
Strategy: For Sellers: Competitive pricing is crucial. Buyers now have options and will skip over overpriced listings. Consider getting a pre-listing appraisal or at least a detailed CMA to set a realistic price. Make your home shine (minor repairs, fresh paint, curb appeal) because in a cooler market, condition can be a tiebreaker. And be patient; an average of 4 months on market means you shouldn’t panic if weeks go by without an offer. Keep communication open with your realtor about feedback from showings and be willing to adjust if needed by mid-Q4. For Buyers: Take advantage of the greater selection. Buyers now have broader inventory visibility, allowing for more deliberate selection. An opportunity to realign home searches with client preferences that may have been constrained during the tighter 2022 market. You have a bit more time to deliberate, but truly desirable homes (well-priced in popular neighborhoods) can still go under contract fast. Coach buyers not to delay on competitively priced, well-located listings, which continue to attract prompt interest despite the market cooldown. Negotiate. With most listings, there is room for bargaining on price, closing costs, or repairs; sellers know you have other choices. If you’re financing, use the slower market to your benefit by including inspection contingencies and perhaps a seller credit for rate buy-downs. These asks were harder to get accepted last year. Overall, the door is open for buyers who were frustrated by the 2021–2022 frenzy: now is a time you can buy without the chaos, and even get a good deal on a home this fall.
Market Conditions: Christopher Creek is a small, cabin-centric market, so its stats often swing wildly. September saw only 4 sales (versus 6 last September). Such low volume that one or two big sales dramatically affect averages. Absorption rate stands around 8.3 months, slightly better than 9.0 months last year. However, year-to-date the supply is actually higher (about 7.9 months YTD vs 5.3 last year), because sales overall in 2025 haven’t kept up with the increase in listings. Currently about 19 homes are listed for sale in Christopher Creek, almost identical to the ~20 active a year ago (inventory flat). But sales this year have slowed, hence the higher months’ supply. In short, it’s a solid buyer’s market here with plenty of inventory relative to the very few buyers. Sellers may find it takes time to match with that “needle in a haystack” cabin shopper.
Prices: The median sale price for Sep 2025 soared to $802,500, a whopping +90% vs last September’s $422,500. Before anyone thinks values doubled – this is purely because 2025’s four sales were all much higher-end cabins than the ones that sold in Sep 2024. In fact, one of the recent sales was over $1.1M, pulling the median way up. Year-to-date median gives a more grounded view: it is $442,500, actually down about –7% from the YTD median of $477,500 in 2024. The average sale price YTD is down even more (–25%), because last year had some unusually expensive sales early on. The lesson: high-end cabin closings are few and far between, and their timing can distort the stats. Realistically, most cabin values here are steady or slightly lower than last year. The upper-end ($800K+ cabins) might not fetch the peak prices of 2022, but they also aren’t flooding the market. They sell occasionally, as seen by that million-dollar sale. Buyers can certainly find deals on mid-range cabins (the $300K–$500K range) as those sellers face competition; meanwhile sellers should not read too much into that +90% median blip. It’s better to price off recent comps and consider that the pool of buyers is limited at any given time.
Christopher Creek – Median Sale Price skyrocketed in Sep 2025 ($802K vs $422K last year), purely due to the mix of just 4 sales (several high-end cabins). This is an anomaly – overall prices are relatively stable.
Days on Market: The few properties that did sell in September actually moved faster – median DOM was 53 days vs 93 days last year. This again is not necessarily reflective of the whole market. It could be that those particular cabins were well-priced gems that got snatched up. In general, the average DOM is 4+ months (120 days) for 2025 sales, up a bit from ~112 days last year. Many listings here are vacation cabins that can take 6+ months to sell due to the niche buyer base. In the distribution data, a notable number of sales fell into the 90-120 day range, but some took over 6 months. Patience is key for sellers; for buyers, it means you often have negotiating leverage on stale listings.
List-to-Sell Ratio: Despite soft conditions, recent sales still achieved about 95–97% of list price on average (median SP/LP ~97.3%). This suggests that sellers who are realistic eventually find the buyer without huge markdowns. It also implies that when a cabin finally sells, it was likely priced right to attract that one buyer. Buyers, while you may not see drastic price slashes, you can often get closing costs covered or negotiate some off the ask, especially if a listing has no other interest.
Strategy: For Sellers: Expect a marathon, not a sprint. The demand in Christopher Creek is limited; your cabin might be one of only a few sales this quarter. Price aggressively from the start. Chasing the market down with reductions will only lengthen your DOM. Make sure your online listing has quality photos and emphasizes unique features (creek frontage, remodeled interior, etc.) that justify your price. Consider offering incentives to sweeten the deal for the right buyer. Also consider enhancing listing appeal with value-adds, e.g., furnishings or recreational equipment, as a strategy to stand out in a slow-moving niche market For Buyers: Remind clients that high months of inventory afford them favorable negotiation conditions, but emphasize that unique or well-prepped cabins may still command premium interest. Nearly every active listing has been on for a while; use that in negotiations. Agents may find success structuring below-ask offers on stale listings, particularly when supported by comps or condition-related adjustments One caution: if a truly exceptional cabin (perfect location, turnkey, priced well) comes up, it might not last. The gems still go fast even in a slow market (as we saw with a couple sales under 60 days). But otherwise, you have the luxury of time and choice in Christopher Creek right now.
Market Conditions: Tonto Basin’s housing market has slowed to a crawl. In fact, no homes sold in September 2025, compared to 4 sales in Sep 2024. Year-to-date sales are down ~24% (28 vs 37). With so few buyers, the absorption rate remains high at ~8.6 months, though that’s actually an improvement from ~10.8 months a year ago (since active listings have decreased a bit). There are currently around 33 active listings in the Basin, slightly less than ~37 last fall. In essence, a few sellers left the market and no buyers showed up, hence the zero sales month. This area is firmly a buyer’s market (in fact, bordering on no-market if sales stay at zero). It’s a reminder that Tonto Basin is a smaller, recreational market (popular in winter months). Seasonal factors might be at play too, and activity could pick up later in Q4 or Q1 when winter visitors arrive.
Tonto Basin – Months of Inventory fell slightly from ~10.8 to ~8.6 months[50]. However, with zero sales in Sep 2025, this metric is somewhat theoretical. The market has lots of supply relative to very low demand.
Prices: With no September closings, we only have year-to-date figures to consider. The YTD median sale price is about $254,000, which is –14% lower than the 2024 YTD median of ~$295,000. Similarly, the YTD average price ~$254K is down ~–16%. This suggests that the homes that did sell in 2025 were skewed to the lower end (or that higher-end properties haven’t been selling). Last year saw a few more $300K+ sales, whereas this year’s limited deals have been in the more modest price tiers. List prices of actives haven’t changed much: the median list is ~$315K (about flat YoY), which might indicate sellers are holding to their asking prices despite slow movement. But eventually, without buyers, those list prices may have to bend. If and when sales resume, we might see reported prices come down further.
Days on Market: Most Tonto Basin listings are sitting for a long time. The YTD average DOM for sales (those 28 that sold) was 180 days (6 months), up from ~151 days last year. And that’s for the ones that sold. Many others have been listed far longer. Anecdotally, some homes have been on the market for over a year. With virtually no sales in the last month or two, DOM will only accumulate for active listings. Sellers should brace for a lengthy wait or consider pulling listings until demand returns (perhaps as winter visitors come for ATV/boating season). Buyers can use DOM to their advantage. A seller with a home listed for 200+ days may be quite motivated. Coach buyers to structure offers that include concessions such as seller-paid closing costs or rate buy-downs, particularly on high-DOM properties
List-to-Sell Ratio: Data is sparse, but given the dynamics, any sale likely involves negotiation. The few recent sales were averaging around 94–95% of list. But in a zero-sale month, it’s anyone’s guess. A desperate seller might take a bigger discount to get a deal done. Buyers certainly should negotiate assertively here; sellers have minimal leverage when the buyer can choose from many similar homes and wait indefinitely.
Strategy: For Sellers: If you don’t need to sell now, you might consider waiting for spring when activity could pick up. If you are selling, price as aggressively as you can. You need to be the best value among those 30+ listings to even attract a showing. Ensure your property is in tip-top shape (or price it acknowledging any flaws). This is a market where throwing in extras (furniture, a boat, an RV carport) or offering to pay closing costs might entice a buyer. Be prepared for low-ball offers, and weigh them seriously if they come, as it might be the only offer for a while. For Buyers: With minimal competition and extended DOM, brokers have an opportunity to negotiate favorable terms for buyer clients, including concessions, repairs, or rate buy-downs. Keep an eye on seasonality: more sellers might list in spring; on the flip side, a seller with a home still on the market in November/December may be extra motivated to cut a deal before year-end. With patience, you could secure a Tonto Basin home at a bargain price this Q4.
Absorption Rate: Houston Mesa (the area just north of Payson) saw a big improvement in months’ supply; currently about 6.2 months vs 11.4 months a year ago. This drop of nearly 46% in absorption rate (see chart) is actually positive news: the market went from extremely oversupplied to almost balanced. How? Mainly through a reduction in active listings. Many sellers who didn’t need to sell pulled their homes off the market over the past year, and new listings slowed. At the same time, sales year-to-date are slightly up (20 vs 16, +25%). So, more buyers + fewer listings = better equilibrium.
Houston Mesa – Months of Inventory plunged from ~11.4 to ~6.2 months YoY. A sharp inventory drop and a bump in sales brought this sub-market back toward balance.
Inventory & Sales: Only 2 homes sold in Sep 2025 (vs 5 last year), but year-to-date 20 have sold (vs 16 in 2024). Meanwhile, active listings are down to 16 (from 19 last year, –16%). So although September itself was slow, overall buyer activity in 2025 has been a bit higher than 2024, and definitely inventory is lower. Houston Mesa is a small market, so numbers fluctuate, but the trend indicates excess listings were absorbed over time. With ~6 months of supply now, Houston Mesa is arguably in a balanced state, not strongly favoring buyers or sellers.
Prices: September’s median sale price was $405,000, down –22% from $520,000 last year. This looks dramatic but recall last year one of the 5 sales was very high-end (driving the median up to $520K). This year’s two sales were more mid-range, hence the lower median. Year-to-date, however, median price is $399,950, which is +29% higher than last year’s $309,450. That huge YTD jump suggests more higher-end homes sold earlier in 2025. Indeed, we saw a handful of $500K+ sales mid-year that elevated the stats. The average sale price YTD ($379K) is up ~+9%. The reality on the ground: entry-level inventory was scarce and some larger homes sold, pushing up medians. But with only ~16 listings out there, each sale can sway numbers. In general, prices here have been stable to rising because supply tightened – a contrast to Payson proper. Sellers have benefited from less competition, and buyers have had to pay a bit more than they might have a year ago for comparable properties.
Days on Market: This is one area where things got worse for sellers. The few sales in Sep had an average and median DOM of 157 days (~5+ months), much longer than 95–104 days last year. And YTD, the median DOM is 152 days (vs 62 last year). That’s more than double. Homes took significantly longer to sell in 2025. How to square that with improved absorption? It could be that many of the sales this year were of homes that had sat on the market from 2024 (finally selling after price drops or condition improvements), hence high DOM. Also, buyers have been picky. Even with fewer listings, they weren’t in a rush. Now that inventory is lean, new well-priced listings might sell faster going forward, but the 2025 data suggests many sellers had to wait and wait. Homes that did eventually sell often needed multiple price reductions over months; the final sale still counted as a “sale” (helping absorption) but took a while. Sellers should note this: patience or a proactive pricing strategy is crucial. Buyers can use the long DOM trend as leverage. A seller with a home on market for 5 months is likely tired and more open to negotiation.
List-to-Sell Ratio: On average, sellers got about 95–96% of list. But it varied: those who sold quickly likely got closer to 98–100%, whereas stale listings probably sold for 90% or less of original list (reflected in Houston Mesa’s Sold/Original List ratio averaging ~90.5%). We did see some cases where price cuts were necessary, e.g., a home originally at $500K might have eventually sold at $450K. As a buyer, you can identify these situations and negotiate confidently.
Strategy: For Sellers: You’ve seen many neighbors take their homes off market; if you remain, it means you’re serious about selling. Leverage the low inventory, with only ~16 homes for sale, if yours offers something unique (a view lot, a larger acreage, new renovations), you could stand out and attract the next buyer. But don’t let the balanced stats fool you: buyers are still taking their time, so front-load your pricing (list at a fair market price, not aspirational) to avoid languishing. If your DOM is creeping past 3 months, reevaluate pricing or marketing with your agent; the goal is to not join the ranks of “tired” listings that buyers overlook. For Buyers: Houston Mesa has fewer options than last year, but the power dynamic is fairly even now. You won’t necessarily get a steal on a great home, but you also likely won’t have to bid against others. Use the DOM to your advantage. Target properties over 90 days on market and negotiate hard on those (the sellers are more likely to concede). For fresher listings, understand that if they’re priced well, the seller might hold firmer. Overall, this micro-market is stabilizing. Expect prices to be not far off from recent comps. One tip: because list counts are low, if nothing fits your needs now, be ready to pounce when a new listing appears (get alerts set up). The good homes still draw interest, especially as Phoenix-area buyers trickle up looking for retreat properties. Being prepared with financing and local market knowledge will help you snag the right home in Houston Mesa when it appears.
Market Conditions: Star Valley (just east of Payson) experienced some dramatic shifts on paper. Sales actually doubled – 8 homes sold in Sep 2025 vs 4 in Sep 2024, but at the same time active listings also soared ~60% (around 33 for sale now vs 23 last year). The net effect is that months of inventory is roughly 5+ months now, whereas last year Star Valley practically had no inventory (a super-seller’s market). In fact, absorption jumped to ~11.0 months in Sep if using that month’s sales vs actives (that figure is exaggerated by the sales surge being a one-month blip). Year-to-date supply is ~6.9 months vs 5.5 before, a clear shift toward a buyer’s market. Essentially, in 2024 Star Valley had so few listings that anything listed sold immediately; in 2025, inventory built up and buyers became less urgent. Pending sales did increase (8 under contract vs 1 last year at one point), showing there are buyers coming in when price is right. It’s a more normal market now compared to the frenzy last year.
Prices: This is where it gets wild. The median sale price in Sep 2025 was about $182,500, which is +77% higher than Sep 2024’s median of $103,000. That sounds like home values nearly doubled, but they didn’t. What happened is last year’s 4 sales were largely very low-priced properties (possibly mobile homes or lots), dragging the median to an unusually low level. This year’s batch of 8 sales included more typical homes (and no sub-$100K outliers), so the median rebounded. To underscore this: the year-to-date median in Star Valley is around $115,000 for 2025, versus $232,500 in 2024 (–50%). Wait, so YTD says prices fell 50%? Not exactly – that’s because in early 2024 several higher-priced homes sold, boosting 2024’s median, whereas 2025’s sales have been mostly on the low end (except September’s). In truth, Star Valley’s small size means median price is extremely volatile. If we smooth it out, we’d say home values might be slightly lower than a year or two ago, especially for mid-range homes, but not to the extremes the monthly stats suggest. Average price YTD ($260K vs $390K last year) is down ~33%, again reflecting fewer high-end sales in 2025. The takeaway: Don’t read too much into median/avg swings. The typical site-built home in Star Valley (on land) is still selling in the low-to-mid $200Ks. Buyers are paying a bit less than in the peak, but sellers aren’t giving homes away either.
Star Valley – Median Sale Price appears to have jumped from $103K to $182K YoY (Sep ’24 vs Sep ’25). This is due to last year’s unusually low median. Actual values have not grown like that – in fact, the full-year trend shows a decline. Always look at the broader context in small markets.
Inventory & DOM: Active listings are up ~39% as noted (approximately 32 now vs 23 then). This means buyers can finally find options in Star Valley, whereas previously it was slim pickings. Homes, especially in the lower price tiers, no longer get snapped up instantly. The average DOM dipped slightly for September sales (113 days vs 129 a year ago), but the median DOM rose to 109 days from 78. This mixed signal likely arises from those 8 sales: some were on market a long time and some were quick flips. Year-to-date, DOM is roughly flat (76 vs 70 median). Essentially, homes aren’t all selling immediately like last year, but they’re also not languishing terribly – many still sell within 2–4 months. We also saw a positive sign: pending sales jumped going into fall (8 under contract vs 1 last year), indicating buyers have stepped in at these adjusted price points. With ~5–7 months of supply, Star Valley is balanced to buyer-leaning, so expect DOM to slowly grow if inventory stays high.
List-to-Sell Ratio: Sellers in Star Valley are still getting around 95% of their list price on average. The median SP/LP was ~95.9% in recent data. This means while some negotiation is happening, we aren’t seeing ultra-lowball sales. Likely because many listings are lower-priced to start with (not a lot of fat to trim). If a property was listed at $150K, a buyer might get it for ~$142K. Higher-end listings (few as they are) likely have more wiggle room.
Strategy: For Sellers: Know your competition. With more homes for sale, what is your unique selling proposition? If you’re one of five similar homes in a park or subdivision, you might need the best price or best condition to attract the next buyer. The good news: buyers are out there (we saw an uptick in contracts), so a sale will happen if you position your home as the top choice. Ensure you have excellent marketing (professional photos, online presence) because many Phoenix-area buyers search online for Star Valley deals. Price realistically, the days of “name your price” are over. However, don’t panic with the wild % changes in median; consult your realtor on true comparables for value. For Buyers: At last, selection! You likely have several more options in Star Valley than you did a year ago. Take advantage of that to comparison shop. Many of the homes are modest manufactured houses or cabins. Get a good home inspection, since some have deferred maintenance. With inventory up, you can negotiate, especially on those that have been listed a while (some have needed price drops already). But don’t expect to steal a property for half off – the overall pricing hasn’t collapsed, it’s just the mix that changed. Focus on value: if a home needs work, use that to justify a lower offer. If it’s move-in ready, recognize that those can still sell near asking if priced fairly. Keep an eye on new listings. A well-priced home in Star Valley (particularly those under $200K) can still attract quick interest even in a slower market, given how affordable they are. The bottom line is you have more breathing room and more negotiating power than at any time in recent years here.
Market Conditions: The Control Road area (rural communities along Control Rd) is experiencing a prolonged slow-down. No sales closed in September (5 sold last Sep), and year-to-date sales are flat (19 this year vs 18 last year). Meanwhile, active listings jumped ~56% – about 25 for sale now vs 16 a year ago. That’s a lot of inventory for a small buyer pool. The absorption rate is holding around 12 months of supply, same as last year, effectively one full year of inventory on the market. This indicates a strongly buyer’s market where supply far outstrips demand. Many listings are likely sitting with few showings. It’s a bit of a stalemate: sellers haven’t left the market (inventory actually grew), but buyers haven’t increased either. Possibly owners in this area are trying to sell to capitalize on past price gains, but buyers are scarce at those asking prices.
Prices: With no September sales, we look at YTD stats. The YTD median price is $450,000, up about +15% from $390,000 YTD 2024. However, the YTD average price $520K is down 26%. This contradictory trend implies that mid-range homes sold this year (raising median), while the really expensive properties did not (lowering average from last year’s high). Last year saw a couple luxury home sales on Control Road that spiked the average to over $700K. This year, those high-end deals didn’t repeat, but a steady stream of mid-priced sales (~$400–500K) bumped the median up. Active listing prices are actually a bit lower on average than last year (avg list ~$482K now vs $486K then), suggesting some moderation in seller expectations. But many are still priced ambitiously (half of actives are listed above $460K median). With essentially no sales lately, pricing is more notional, sellers may need to cut prices to re-engage buyers.
Days on Market: The few sales in 2025 took longer on average. YTD avg DOM 131 days vs 99 last year. And for current listings, many have been sitting for months (if not the entire summer). Homes can easily be on the market 6–12+ months here. If you drive the area, you’ll see the same for-sale signs as earlier this year. In a sense, time is on the buyer’s side. There’s little urgency. Sellers hoping for an early exodus of Phoenician buyers to snag their home this summer were largely disappointed. Perhaps as fall/winter arrives, we might see some movement, but expectations should be tempered.
List-to-Sell Ratio: When homes do sell, the negotiation gap can be larger here. We’ve seen instances of 10%+ off original list by the time of sale (reflected in the average sold/original list ratio ~90.5%). Sellers often start high and then reduce. Buyers should assume at least a 5% discount is achievable in negotiations, often more if the home has lingered.
Control Road – Active Listings increased from 16 to 25 (+56% YoY). With no recent sales, inventory is piling up, giving buyers the upper hand.
Strategy: For Sellers: It’s critical to assess how motivated you are. If you need to sell, you must be the most competitively priced home in your bracket. As of now, buyers have a dozen+ choices and can wait. Consider proactive price reductions before the winter slowdown. It’s better to secure a deal now than chase the market down next spring if conditions don’t improve. If your home has been listed 6+ months with no offers, that’s a loud signal to adjust price or condition. Also, broaden marketing: emphasize any unique appeal (horse property? off-grid living? views?) and ensure your listing reaches Phoenix metro and out-of-state buyers who seek Rim Country retreats. For Buyers: This submarket remains highly negotiable. Realtors should guide buyers to use extended DOM and low absorption as leverage when structuring offers.. Virtually every seller is wondering when their buyer will come. It could be you, at your price. Encourage negotiation strategies rooted in current DOM trends and comps, especially in areas like Control Road where inventory heavily outpaces demand. You likely can get sellers to pay closing costs, provide allowances, or other concessions. One thought: if you’re financing, this environment is ideal to ask for a seller credit to buy down your interest rate. Many sellers will entertain that instead of a further price drop, and it can save you significant money. Proactively track expired or withdrawn listings. Off-market opportunities may exist where motivated sellers remain open to private negotiations before re-listing . Some owners gave up; if you find a match that’s off-market now, your agent could approach them with an offer before it relists. Overall, in Control Road area, patience and savvy negotiation will pay off, as there are deals to be had and few competitors vying for them.
To summarize the market conditions, here’s an at-a-glance comparison of absorption rates, prices, and inventory in each of the eight areas we’ve covered. This encapsulates how much supply is on hand (months of inventory), how median sale prices have changed year-over-year, and how active listing counts compare to last year:
Area | Absorption Rate (Months) Sep ’25 (vs Sep ’24) | Median Sale Price Sep ’25 (YoY % change) | Active Listings Sep ’25 (vs Sep ’24) |
Pine & Strawberry | ~7.6 (Pine) & 7.8 (Straw) vs ~5.7 & 6.3 last year | Pine: $485K (+43%)Straw: $370K (–24%) | 91 combined (59 Pine + 32 Straw) vs 72 last year (+26%) |
Happy Jack | 8.3 vs 10.1 last year (↓18% supply) | $552K (+6%) | 40± vs ~38 last year (+13%) (approx.) |
Payson (Overall) | 6.9 vs ~6.0 last year (≈15% more) | ~$420K (≈–5% YoY) | 192 vs 157 last year (+22%) |
Christopher Creek | 8.3 vs 9.0 last year (↓8%) | $802K (+90%)* | 20 vs 21 last year (–5%) |
Tonto Basin | 8.6 vs 10.8 last year (↓20%) | N/A (0 sales Sep ’25)n YTD: $254K (–14%) | 33 vs 37 last year (–11%) |
Houston Mesa | 6.2 vs 11.4 last year (↓46%) | $405K (–22% YoY) YTD: $400K (+29%) | 16 vs 19 last year (–16%) |
Star Valley | 11.0 vs 4.9 last year (↑122%) | $182K (+77% YoY) YTD: $115K (–50%) | 32 vs 23 last year (+39%) |
Control Road | 12.0 vs 12.0 last year (no change) | N/A (0 sales Sep ’25) YTD: $450K (+15%) | 25 vs 16 last year (+56%) |
Sources: CAZ MLS FlexStats reports for each area, Sep 2025 vs Sep 2024. Absorption Rate is months’ supply of inventory. Active listing counts are end-of-month totals.
❖ Note: Extremely small sample sizes in Christopher Creek, Strawberry, and Star Valley cause large % swings in median prices – these do NOT equal true value changes.
As the table shows, most areas now have considerably higher months of inventory than last year (favoring buyers), except Houston Mesa which improved toward balance. Inventory (active listings) is up in almost all areas, dramatically so in places like Control Road and Star Valley, giving buyers more choices. Median prices are a mixed bag: some up (Happy Jack, Christopher Ck.), some down (Strawberry, Payson, Star Valley), but those changes often reflect different mix of properties sold rather than broad appreciation or depreciation. The high-level summary is Rim Country real estate has transitioned from a hot seller’s market to a more normal or buyer-leaning market in 2025.
Going into the final quarter of 2025, here are a few big-picture coaching points for our CAAR members:
In summary, Rim Country real estate is moving toward a more balanced market after the hyper-seller years. This is a healthy adjustment, but it does require skillful guidance of clients who may not be used to the current dynamics. By setting the right expectations, employing effective marketing, and using data-driven insights (like those above), we can help our sellers still achieve good results and our buyers secure great homes without the frenzy. I encourage each of you to dig into your specific market niche numbers and continue the conversation with clients – educated clients make for smoother transactions.
Thank you for reading this extensive update. Let’s continue to support each other and share our on-the-ground experiences as the market evolves. If you have any questions about these stats or need assistance with strategy for a particular listing or buyer, please don’t hesitate to reach out – that’s what our association is here for. Wishing you all a productive and successful Q4!
Sincerely,
Dennis Riccio
President, Central Arizona Association of Realtors.
Sources: CAAR MLS Market Summary and Market Statistics
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