Rim Country Real Estate Market Analysis – August 2025

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Rim Country Real Estate Market Analysis – August 2025

By Dennis Riccio, President, Central Arizona Association of REALTORS®

August 2025 data indicate a cooling Rim Country housing market compared to a year ago. Inventory has grown while buyer activity has softened, leading to longer sales timelines and a shift toward a more balanced or buyer-leaning market. Prices overall remain relatively stable (with slight median gains), but sellers face more competition and must price realistically. Key year-over-year highlights include:

Inventory & Supply: Active residential listings increased to 623 in Aug 2025 (up +8.2% from 576 a year prior). Months of inventory (absorption rate) rose to 6.8 months from about 5.7 months in Aug 2024 – indicating a transition toward a buyer’s market (6+ months supply). Fewer new listings came to market – 102 new listings in Aug 2025, down –21% year-over-year – which may reflect seller hesitancy amid shifting conditions. Despite fewer new listings, total active supply is higher because homes are taking longer to sell and accumulating on the market.
Sales Volume: Closed sales for the region slowed slightly. 92 homes sold in Aug 2025, down from 101 in Aug 2024 (∼–9% YOY). Pending sales (homes under contract) also declined to 86 (from 101, –14.9% YOY), suggesting a lighter pipeline of transactions going into the fall.
Home Prices: Overall price levels are holding steady with a modest upward tilt in medians. The median sale price across Rim Country was $442K in Aug 2025, up ~+3% from $430K in Aug 2024[1][2]. The average sale price was $538K, a slight dip of about –1% from $545K a year ago[1][2], indicating some high-end sales were fewer. Notably, active listing prices are higher than last year – the median list price of active homes in Aug 2025 was $499K (vs $459K last Aug)[1][3] – as some sellers test the market at ambitious prices. However, market dynamics differ by area (detailed below), with smaller communities like Pine-Strawberry and Happy Jack seeing larger price jumps due to their specific mix of sales.
Days on Market: Homes are generally taking longer to sell than a year ago. The average days on market (DOM) in August 2025 was 133 days, up from 113 days in Aug 2024. Median DOM similarly increased to 105 days (from 93), meaning a typical property now takes about 3–4 months to sell. This reflects the higher inventory and cautious buyers – properties are sitting longer before finding the right buyer, in contrast to the quicker sales of last summer.
Sale-to-List Price Ratios: Despite the slower market, sale prices remain close to asking prices on average. The sale-to-final-list price ratio is about 95.8% (slightly down from 96.0% last August). Sellers are getting roughly 96 cents on the dollar of their list price. However, the sale-to-original-list ratio is ~91%, indicating that some homes required price reductions before selling. In sum, well-priced homes still sell near asking, but initial overpricing is often corrected with price cuts. Realtors should advise clients to price competitively from the start in this market.

Figure 1: Rim Country aggregated listing and sales activity for August 2025 vs August 2024. Active inventory is higher while new listings, pending sales, and closed sales are all lower than a year ago. This reflects a market with growing supply and slightly reduced demand.

Overall, the Rim Country market in August 2025 shows higher inventory, fewer sales, and longer selling times compared to August 2024. Pricing is relatively flat to modestly up, but the increased months’ supply (near 7 months) marks a shift toward a more balanced market after the seller-favored conditions of recent years. Buyers have more choices and negotiating power than last summer, while sellers face more competition. Realtors should emphasize realistic pricing, strategic marketing, and patience: with homes taking longer to sell, setting the right price and managing seller expectations is critical. Next, we break down the trends by key Rim Country areas (Payson, Pine-Strawberry, and Happy Jack) to see the local variations within this overall picture.

Payson (85541) Market Breakdown

Payson, the largest market in Rim Country, experienced a moderation in activity in August 2025 compared to a year prior. Inventory is up and sales are flat-to-down, leading to slightly longer market times. Home prices in Payson softened modestly YOY, likely due to a shift in the mix of homes sold (fewer high-end sales this August). Key metrics for Payson (Aug 2025 vs Aug 2024) include:

Active Listings: 324 active listings at August’s end, up +13.3% from 286 last year. With more homes on the market, buyers have more options in Payson than a year ago. The absorption rate is ~6.9 months of supply (up from 6.0), indicating a move toward a balanced market.
New Listings: 66 new listings were added in August, a –21% decline from 84 in Aug 2024. This drop in new supply, combined with steady sales, suggests some potential sellers are holding off (possibly due to market uncertainty or seasonality).
Closed Sales: 59 homes sold in Aug 2025, essentially flat (–1.7%) compared to 60 sales last August. Year-to-date, sales are down about 2.7%, reflecting slightly weaker demand in 2025. Fewer pending contracts (46 vs 64, –28% YOY) in August also signal cooler buyer activity going forward.
Home Prices: The median sale price in Payson was $414,000, down –5.9% from $440,000 in Aug 2024. The average sale price saw a larger drop to about $504K (–17.9% YOY), indicating that the high-end segment was less active this year. Many 2025 sales were in mid-range price bands (the $300K–$400K range had 19 sales vs 12 last year) while sales over $500K fell (19 vs 25 last year). Overall, prices in Payson edged down slightly, a notable change from the price growth of prior years.
Days on Market: Homes are taking longer to sell. The median DOM in August was 112 days (about 3.7 months), up from 97 days last year (+15%). Average DOM was 141 days (vs 121, +16%). This suggests buyers are more deliberate and less inclined to rush, and some listings are lingering. Well-priced homes can still sell, but the typical listing now needs nearly an extra two weeks to find a buyer compared to a year ago.

Insights for Payson: With inventory up and demand slightly down, Payson’s market is no longer as tight as it was. A ~7-month supply means buyers can be selective. Sellers should be prepared for increased competition and longer timelines. Pricing trends indicate slight downward pressure, especially on higher-priced properties – sellers in the upper price tiers may need to adjust expectations. Realtors in Payson should focus on competitive pricing and staging to help listings stand out. Despite the cooler market, note that median prices have only eased modestly and well-maintained, well-priced homes are still selling near list price (the sale-to-list ratio in Payson remains in the mid-90% range, similar to the regional average). Overall, Payson is moving toward a more balanced market after the seller’s market conditions of 2020–2022, giving buyers and sellers a more level playing field.

Pine-Strawberry (85544) Market Breakdown

The Pine-Strawberry area (zip 85544) saw a mixed market in August 2025, characterized by rising inventory, fewer new listings, and a drastic jump in median price for the month. Sales volume was essentially unchanged, but the combination of higher inventory and steady sales pushed months of supply up significantly. Interestingly, although the market slowed (as seen in much longer DOM), the median sale price spiked – indicating that the homes that did sell in August were skewed toward higher price points compared to last year. Key metrics for Pine-Strawberry include:

Active Listings: 98 active residential listings in Aug 2025, a +30.7% increase from 75 a year ago. This large inventory growth gives Pine-Strawberry one of the highest months’ supply levels in Rim Country at 8.3 months, up from 6.1 months last August (+36%). This signals a strong shift toward a buyer’s market in Pine/Stawberry – plenty of listings relative to the pace of sales.
New Listings: Only 14 new listings came on the market in August, down –22% from 18 in Aug 2024. The drop in new supply might be due to seasonality or cautious sellers, but even so, the total active listings remain high since sales have not kept up.
Closed Sales: 18 homes sold in August, essentially flat compared to 19 last year (–5%). Year-to-date sales (93) are roughly on par with last year (92), so demand volume hasn’t changed much. However, pending sales in August (20) were similar to last year (19), indicating stable short-term demand. The relatively small number of transactions in this area means metrics like median price can swing with just a few high or low sales.
Home Prices: Pine-Strawberry’s median sale price skyrocketed to $600,000, up +33% from $450,000 in Aug 2024. This large jump reflects the price mix of the few sales: this August saw more higher-end homes in the sold mix (11 of the 18 sales were above $500K, whereas last year only 8 of 19 were $500K+). The average sale price was also up ~9% YOY ($585,556 vs $536,984). Despite these gains in August, year-to-date average prices in Pine are actually slightly down (–6.4%) compared to 2024, implying that earlier months of 2025 had fewer high-end sales. List prices for active homes are higher than last year as well (median active list ~$547K, +9%), showing seller optimism. It’s important to note the small sample size: with under 20 sales, median price can be volatile. The jump to $600K median likely doesn’t mean all home values rose 33%, rather, more expensive cabins/homes happened to sell this August.
Days on Market: Homes in Pine-Strawberry are taking much longer to sell on average. The median DOM spiked to 114 days (almost 4 months) from 72 days last year (+58%). Average DOM was 146 days vs 98 (+49%). This is a significant slowdown – many listings now sit for several months. High inventory and niche buyer demand (for second homes, cabins, etc., common in this area) mean properties require more time to find the right buyer in 2025. Sellers need patience, and may have to consider price reductions if a home doesn’t move in a few months.

Insights for Pine-Strawberry: The data paints a picture of a much slower market in Pine-Strawberry this year. With over 8 months of inventory, buyers have the upper hand – they can take their time and negotiate. Sellers in this area should be aware that competition is stiff: there are nearly 30% more listings than a year ago, but no increase in sales to absorb that supply. Pricing realistically is paramount; while August’s closed sales showed high prices, that was due to specific properties selling. Most listings still need to compete on price and condition to attract the relatively limited pool of buyers. Realtors should advise Pine-Strawberry sellers that expecting a quick sale at last year’s prices is unlikely – instead, emphasize making the home stand out (through marketing, staging, and perhaps pricing below competing listings) to shorten the long DOM trend. On the buy side, this is a great time for buyers to find deals in Pine/Strawberry: ample choice and more bargaining power to negotiate below asking or with favorable terms, especially on properties that have been on the market for a while.

Happy Jack (86024) Market Breakdown

Happy Jack, a smaller cabin/rural market in Rim Country, showed somewhat different trends. In August 2025, Happy Jack actually saw slightly more sales activity than last year, and homes sold faster, even as inventory grew. With very low transaction volumes, its statistics can fluctuate, but generally Happy Jack’s market appears relatively steady to improving in some aspects YOY. Key points for Happy Jack include:

Active Listings: 43 active listings in Aug 2025, up +13.2% from 38 in Aug 2024. Months of inventory stands high at 9.2 months (was 8.8 months last year) – Happy Jack consistently has a high months’ supply due to a slower pace of sales in this vacation-home market. The slight increase in absorption rate (+5% YOY) suggests inventory growth kept pace with sales. Essentially, supply remains abundant relative to demand here.
New Listings: Only 3 new listings were added in August, half the number from last year (6). Year-to-date, new listings are actually a bit higher than 2024 (71 vs 66, +7.6%), so the smaller August influx might be just timing. The low new listing count in August did not constrain inventory since existing supply is already high.
Closed Sales: 5 homes sold in Aug 2025, slightly more than 4 sales last year (+25%, though that’s just one additional sale). Year-to-date, 32 sales have closed vs 28 in the same period 2024 (+14%), indicating a modest uptick in demand in 2025. While volumes are small, it’s a positive sign that more buyers are transacting in Happy Jack than before. Pending sales in August (9) were also up from last year (5), pointing to stronger buyer interest entering the fall.
Home Prices: The median sale price in Happy Jack was $600,000 for Aug 2025, up +13.2% from $530,000 in Aug 2024. The average sale price jumped to $695,300 (+27.6% YOY). Given only 5 sales, this jump likely reflects one or two high-priced cabin sales boosting the average. (For instance, the sales distribution shows 2 sales in the $400K–499K range and 3 sales $500K+ this August, whereas last year had fewer high-end closings.) Year-to-date, however, prices are fairly flat: the YTD median ($534,500) is actually 1.5% lower than last year. This suggests that aside from this August’s bump, underlying values in Happy Jack are stable. Active list prices are about the same or slightly lower than last year on average (median active list ~$580K, –0.4% YOY), so sellers aren’t dramatically raising prices. Overall, pricing in Happy Jack remains roughly in line with last year, with volatility driven by which price tier of homes sell in a given month.
Days on Market: In contrast to other areas, Happy Jack saw marketing times improve. The median DOM in Aug 2025 was 74 days, down from 123 days in Aug 2024 (–40% faster). Average DOM was 101 days, down from 122 (–17%). This is a notable reversal – last year, one or two very stale listings likely skewed DOM high, whereas this year’s sales included quicker transactions (perhaps sellers pricing more appropriately or eager buyers snapping up desirable cabins). Despite the small sample, it shows that well-priced homes can move in under 3 months even in a high-inventory market like Happy Jack. It’s worth noting that many active listings are still on the market (9 months’ supply), so while the ones that sold did so faster, plenty of others are still waiting. It may be that a few motivated sellers made deals happen faster this year, improving the averages.

Insights for Happy Jack: This niche market remains inventory-heavy but saw encouraging signs in 2025 – a few more sales and faster turnover for those sales. Buyers continue to have ample choices (over 9 months of inventory is firmly a buyer’s market), yet the data hints that if a property is attractive and well-priced, it can sell relatively quickly (as seen by the drop in DOM for sold homes). For Realtors and sellers in Happy Jack, the strategy should be to stand out on price and condition – the quicker sales suggest there are active buyers watching for good opportunities. If a listing isn’t getting interest, price adjustments might be needed given the competition. The sale-to-list ratio in Happy Jack isn’t explicitly broken out, but likely similar to the region ~95-96%, so buyers are negotiating some off the list price. Luxury cabins drove the median up this August, but generally sellers should not assume a big price jump – pricing should reflect comparables and the high supply. For buyers, Happy Jack offers a strong opportunity to negotiate; with so many cabins on the market, one can often find motivated sellers (especially those with long DOM) willing to cut a deal. Overall, Happy Jack’s market in August 2025 can be summed up as slow but steady – a few more deals happening, without dramatic price changes, and still plenty of inventory to choose from.

Figure 2: Median sale price by area, comparing August 2025 vs August 2024. Pine-Strawberry and Happy Jack saw higher median prices this August (due to more high-end sales), while Payson’s median dipped slightly. Note that small sales volumes in Pine and Happy Jack can cause large swings in median prices.

Conclusion and Actionable Insights

Rim Country’s housing market as of August 2025 is cooler than the frenzy of recent years. Inventory is up, sales are a bit slower, and buyers have more breathing room to shop around. The overall months of supply in Rim Country (~6–9 months, depending on area) indicates a shift toward a buyer’s market in Pine-Strawberry and Happy Jack, and a balanced market in Payson. Homes are taking longer to sell and pricing growth has leveled off (region-wide median prices are up slightly, but average prices are flat to down YOY[1][2]). For Realtors and their clients, the following insights and strategies emerge:

Pricing is Key: Encourage sellers to price realistically from the start. Overpricing is risky now – with more competition and discerning buyers, an overpriced listing will languish (as shown by rising DOM and an average sale-to-original-list ratio ~91%, implying many listings needed price cuts). Use the latest comps and emphasize that in this market, the best strategy is often to list at a competitive price to attract buyers early, rather than testing a high price and having to reduce later.
Preparation and Marketing: With buyers taking their time, homes need to stand out to sell faster. Staging, high-quality photos, virtual tours, and repair touch-ups are important to draw interest. Each area has ample inventory (especially Pine-Strawberry and Happy Jack), so a well-presented home will have an edge. Emphasize unique selling points of the property (e.g., mountain views, recent renovations, etc.) and ensure listings are visible online where urban buyers searching for second homes will see them.
Patience and Communication: Prepare sellers for longer market times. It may take a few months to find the right buyer – which is normal now (e.g., median 3–4 months on market in many cases). Set expectations with regular communication and market feedback. If a listing has few showings in the first several weeks, be ready to adjust the strategy – this could mean a price improvement or additional marketing. Data-driven updates (like sharing these market stats) can help justify recommendations to clients.
Buyers’ Opportunity: For buyers, this is a far less stressful market than 1–2 years ago. More choices, more time, and less chance of bidding wars. Buyers can negotiate – with sale prices averaging ~95% of list, offers below asking are often successful. In areas like Pine-Strawberry and Happy Jack, where supply is high and days on market long, buyers have leverage to include contingencies, request repairs, or get seller concessions. Realtors should ensure their buyer clients know that they have bargaining power now, and help them find value deals (for example, target listings that have been on the market 100+ days for potentially motivated sellers).
Market Monitoring: Continue to watch trends into the fall. Often inventory will start to decline into the winter months (as fewer new listings come on and some unsold listings withdraw from the market). If demand remains at current levels, this could gradually eat into the supply and stabilize the market. Interest rates and economic conditions will also play a role in buyer activity. Realtors should stay informed on monthly changes – e.g., if months of inventory starts to decline or if prices show any new trend – and update clients accordingly. As of now, pricing appears stable and neither collapsing nor rapidly appreciating, which is a sign of a healthy normalization in the Rim Country market.

In summary, the Rim Country real estate market in August 2025 is cooler and more balanced than the ultra-hot market of a couple years ago. Sellers face more competition and must be strategic, while buyers have gained more control. For the Central Arizona Association of Realtors, these trends underscore the importance of market expertise and client guidance: by leveraging data (like this report) and local knowledge, Realtors can help sellers navigate the longer sales cycle and help buyers capitalize on the increased inventory. The market is still moving – over 90 homes sold region-wide in August – but success now relies on right-pricing, patience, and proactive marketing. By adjusting tactics to this new normal, Rim Country agents can continue to thrive and facilitate win-win transactions for both sellers and buyers in the months ahead.

Respectfully submitted,

Dennis Riccio

President, Central Arizona Association of REALTORS®

Sources:

CAAR MLS Market Trends and Market Summary

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Rim Country Real Estate Market Analysis – August 2025

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