By Dennis Riccio, President, Central Arizona Association of REALTORS®
As short-term rentals (STRs) continue to reshape the real estate landscape, it’s critical for REALTORS® and brokers to stay informed on the dynamics shaping local investment potential. In Payson, a growing hub for weekenders, outdoor enthusiasts, and vacationing families, the STR market presents both opportunity and complexity. This report equips CAAR members with a grounded understanding of the metrics that drive short-term rental performance and investor expectations. Key measures such as Revenue per Available Rental (RevPAR), Average Daily Rate (ADR), and Occupancy Rate help quantify the income potential of a listing over time. Meanwhile, insights into booking behavior, seasonality, and property type performance offer practical context for advising clients. Whether you’re helping a buyer evaluate a cabin’s income potential or answering seller questions about market positioning, this data-driven analysis is designed to support smart, informed guidance in a competitive segment of our market.
Payson’s short-term rental (STR) market has shown moderate performance over the past year, with an annual occupancy rate around 43% and an average daily rate (ADR) near $250. This yields a revenue per available rental (RevPAR), essentially the monthly revenue per listing if it were fully booked, of about $103. Seasonal fluctuations are pronounced: occupancy peaked at ~60% in July 2025 (the summer high season) and dipped to roughly 37–40% during winter/shoulder months like January and April. ADR has been relatively stable, in the $200–240 range, with a slight uptick during peak summer ($236 in June) and softer rates in the winter (around $200 in Feb). The summer months (June–August) delivered both highest occupancy and strong ADR, driving robust revenues, while the winter months and early spring saw fewer bookings and more discounted rates.
Figure 1: Payson STR occupancy rate (%) and average daily rate ($) by month for the last 12 months. Notice the summer surge in both occupancy and ADR, indicating peak seasonal demand, contrasted by winter’s lower rates and occupancy.
This seasonality reflects Payson’s appeal as a summer mountain getaway. Bookings surge in June/July when Phoenix-area travelers seek cooler temperatures. A secondary spike in demand is evident around holidays and spring break (e.g. March occupancy ~53%), whereas early spring (April) and late fall (Sept) are relatively quieter. For investors, this means annual revenue is highly concentrated in peak periods (summer and holiday seasons). In fact, July’s average monthly revenue per listing (~$3,949) was nearly double that of February (~$2,084). Successful hosts proactively adjust pricing and marketing by season – e.g. raising rates or requiring longer minimum stays during summer peaks, and offering promotions or relaxed minimum stays in off-peak months to maximize yearly returns. The data indicates Payson’s STR market can be lucrative during high season but requires planning for off-season lulls, which can significantly pull down the annual averages.
Booking lead times in Payson are relatively short, meaning guests tend to reserve their rentals only a few weeks before arrival. As of mid-November 2025, a large share of near-term dates are already booked (e.g. ~296 bookings were in place for the immediate weekend of Nov 15th), whereas dates a month out still had plenty of availability (only ~89 bookings for mid-December dates). In fact, roughly half of all reservations are made within the last 30 days before the stay, and a significant chunk even in the final week or two prior. This implies that last-minute travelers drive a good portion of Payson’s STR demand. Hosts often see a wave of bookings closer to holiday weekends or good-weather forecasts, and many opportunistically fill vacancies by adjusting prices as dates approach. Notably, data on RevPAR by booking window suggests reservations made on short notice tend to yield higher nightly revenue (likely due to last-minute pricing premiums and high-demand weekends).
Most bookings in Payson are made less than 30 days in advance, emphasizing the need for short-notice strategies.
The typical length of stay in Payson STRs is about 3 to 4 nights per trip. Over the past year, the average stay length hovered around 3.3–3.7 nights depending on the month. Weekenders constitute much of the market (Fri–Sun stays), though we see slightly longer stays during winter holidays and mid-summer (e.g. January averaged ~3.9 nights, July ~3.7), possibly as visitors stretch trips over long holiday weekends or families spend a week in the cooler summer climate. These figures suggest most guests are on short vacations of just a few nights, rather than extended stays. Investors should tailor their offerings accordingly: “turnover” frequency is high, so efficient cleaning processes and guest communication are key. Additionally, given the short booking window and brief stays, a user-friendly instant booking process and last-minute price optimization can capture those procrastinating travelers and maximize occupancy.
Payson’s STR inventory is dominated by smaller single-family homes and cabins, with a roughly even split among 1-bedroom, 2-bedroom, and 3-bedroom rentals (each about 28% of active listings), and the remaining stock being larger 4-bedroom (10%) or 5+ bedroom homes (7%). In practice this means the typical STR in Payson is a 2–3 bedroom cabin or cottage, often catering to families or small groups. Only about 5% of listings are private-room rentals (owner-occupied home shares), while 95% are entire homes, indicating travelers strongly prefer renting whole cabins/cottages in this market, seeking privacy and a full “home away” experience. Apartments and condos are relatively scarce in Payson’s STR mix (reflecting the area’s housing stock), and unique accommodations (like cabins in the woods, tiny homes, etc.) make up a niche segment that nonetheless collectively earned around $40k in revenue in a recent month. The vast majority of revenue (~$1.6M in Nov 2024) is generated by entire house rentals.
Larger properties yield more income, with 4+ bedroom homes outperforming smaller ones.
Not surprisingly, larger properties earn higher revenues: a 4-bedroom home in Payson grossed about $3,900 per month on average, and a 5-bedroom about $4,800. The few luxury estates (6+ bedrooms) can average $8k+ per month in revenue, far exceeding the ~$2,500/month of a typical 2-bedroom cabin. This revenue gap reflects larger homes commanding higher nightly rates and often hosting larger groups at higher price points. However, it’s worth noting that smaller 1–3 BR homes collectively account for over 80% of all listings, so most hosts are operating in that segment. Within these common size categories, quality and amenities become the differentiators – top-performing 3BR cabins with desirable features (e.g. mountain views, hot tubs, game rooms) can significantly outearn the average. In terms of pricing tiers, AirDNA data segments listings into Budget, Economy, Midscale, Upscale, and Luxury tiers. In Payson, “budget” STRs average around $150/night while “luxury” tier properties average over $300/night. This wide range underscores the diversity of the market: from modest older cabins or manufactured homes at lower price points to high-end custom cabins fetching premium rates. Realtors advising clients should assess where a prospective property falls in this spectrum – higher-tier properties can earn more, but also face a smaller guest pool and higher buyer cost, whereas mid-range cabins appeal to a broad market of vacationing families.
From an investment standpoint, Payson’s STR market offers solid, if not spectacular, return potential, with considerable upside for top operators. AirDNA’s Investability score for Payson is 77/100, a strong rating that reflects a favorable balance of home prices and rental income potential. To put numbers in context, a “typical” STR in Payson earns about $27,000 in annual gross revenue (the median across all listings). Against current home prices, the median sale price in Payson is roughly in the $480–$530k range, this equates to a gross rental yield of ~5–6% (annual rent divided by purchase price). However, investors must account for operating costs: management fees, cleaning, maintenance, taxes, insurance, and utilities often consume 30–40% of gross revenue for a professionally managed STR. After expenses, the net operating income (NOI) on that median property might be on the order of $16–19k/year, which would correspond to roughly a 3–4% cap rate (net ROI if the property were purchased in cash).
For investors using financing, the focus shifts to cash-on-cash return, essentially the annual cash profit vs. the cash invested (down payment, closing costs, furnishings). Assuming 20% down on a $500k property (~$100k investment) and typical mortgage rates, a median-performing STR in Payson is likely close to break-even on a cash flow basis in year one (after mortgage payments). In other words, the cash-on-cash return might be low single digits (or even neutral) for an average property. The real opportunity is in out-performing the averages: A top-quartile property in Payson grossing ~$43k/year (i.e. ~$3,600+ per month in peak times) would yield a much healthier gross yield (~8–9%). Even after expenses, such a property could net around $25–30k/year, which on a $500k home would be a 5–6% cap rate. With financing, that level of performance could translate to perhaps 10–15% cash-on-cash returns, depending on loan terms, a very attractive return in today’s market. Achieving this means selecting a property with strong rental appeal and running it efficiently. Key drivers include: desirability of the location (views, proximity to trails/lakes), amenities offered, professional marketing, and dynamic pricing to maximize revenue. Investors should also budget for furnishing and startup costs, and consider that STR income can vary year-to-year (e.g. fire bans or forest closures can dampen summer tourism). Overall, Payson’s STR investment profile is lower risk and steady reward – property values are more affordable than Sedona/Scottsdale and the market isn’t over-saturated, but the trade-off is more modest occupancy and seasonal demand requiring hands-on management to hit high returns.
Payson’s STR landscape is governed by a combination of new local regulations and Arizona state law. In 2022, Arizona passed SB1168, empowering municipalities to require short-term rental licenses and implement safety/notification rules (while still prohibiting outright bans)[10]. Following this, the Town of Payson introduced its own STR licensing program. Any short-term rental within Payson town limits now must obtain a Town STR License (annual fee $250)[11], and register a local emergency contact. Payson’s ordinance also mandates safety inspections (for example, a fire department check of smoke detectors and egress) and neighbor notification, meaning owners must notify adjacent neighbors with their STR license info and a contact number for complaints. Operating an STR in Payson without this license is unlawful and can result in fines or enforcement action.
In addition, Gila County enacted a new Vacation Rental Ordinance in 2025 (Ordinance No. 2025-01) covering unincorporated areas and small communities around Payson. This county ordinance requires an annual county STR permit (fee $225) for any rental less than 30 days in the unincorporated county. So a property in, say, Pine or Strawberry (unincorporated Gila County) would need the county permit, whereas a property inside Payson town limits needs the town license – and if it’s in Payson but also in county jurisdiction, both may apply. The Gila County rules impose occupancy limits (generally 2 adults per bedroom) and require providing a 24/7 local emergency contact, as well as posting safety information inside the unit. They also require that owners notify all adjacent neighbors in writing before operating, providing the permit number and contact info. Notably, special events (parties, weddings, etc.) are explicitly prohibited at STRs by the county ordinance. An important point to convey to clients who might assume a vacation rental can double as an event venue (it cannot, under these rules).
Enforcement of these regulations has teeth: Gila County now has a dedicated code enforcement officer funded by the permit fees. If a violation is reported, say, an STR operating without a permit or creating a noise nuisance, the county can issue a Notice and Order to Comply, giving the owner 30 days to fix the issue. Failure to comply can lead to a hearing and fines, and in cases of repeated serious violations, the permit can be revoked, effectively barring that property from STR use. Similarly, Payson’s town code allows for fines or revocation of the town STR license if an owner has multiple violations of the rules or state law. The regulatory environment can thus be described as “controlled but not prohibitive.” Short-term rentals are legal in Payson and surrounding Gila County, but owners must proactively comply with the new licensing and safety requirements.
Importantly, HOA and subdivision covenants may further restrict STRs regardless of government law. Many communities in the Payson area (Rim Country) have HOA rules banning short rentals – for instance, the gated Chaparral Pines golf community in Payson has a 90-day minimum lease rule, effectively prohibiting weekend rentals. As REALTORS®, we must check any HOA restrictions when advising clients on a potential STR purchase. A home might meet all city/county rules but still be un-rentable short-term due to private HOA covenants. The bottom line on regulation: Payson’s market remains viable for STR investors under the new rules, but there is a compliance checklist to follow (licenses, permits, local contacts, tax IDs, etc.). These added hurdles have likely been priced into the market’s expectations (reflected in AirDNA’s moderate Regulation score of 63/100 for Payson). Compared to some Arizona markets that have minimal local regulation, Payson’s STR owners now shoulder more administrative responsibility. However, these rules also help address neighbor concerns and may ultimately sustain community support for STRs by mitigating the “party house” issues. Realtors should ensure their clients are aware of and budget for license fees and the need for diligent management under these rules.
How does Payson stack up against other Northern Arizona STR markets? In broad strokes, Payson’s revenue and occupancy are lower than the marquee destinations like Sedona or Scottsdale, but comparable to another mountain town like Show Low. Below is a comparison of key metrics:
Figure 2: RevPAR (revenue per available rental, $) for five Arizona markets, with occupancy rate noted above each bar. Scottsdale and Sedona lead in both occupancy and RevPAR, while Payson and Show Low trail behind the larger markets.
As shown, Scottsdale’s STR market outperforms the others on these metrics. It has the highest occupancy (~57%) and RevPAR (~$198), owing to year-round tourism and high-end properties (ADR in Scottsdale averages a whopping ~$381). Sedona is similarly strong: ~53% occupancy and $189 RevPAR. Sedona’s ADR (~$353) is slightly below Scottsdale’s, but it still far exceeds Payson’s $250 ADR, reflecting Sedona’s draw as an international destination with upscale rentals. Flagstaff STRs post about 53% occupancy as well, with a RevPAR (~$134) lower than Sedona’s due to a more modest ADR around $269. Flagstaff’s larger size and mix of urban and vacation rentals make its averages a bit lower, but it remains a very active market with over 2,700 listings (vs. ~460 in Payson). Show Low, like Payson, is a smaller mountain community and shows very similar figures to Payson: roughly 43% occupancy and just under $100 RevPAR. Both Payson and Show Low cater to regional drive-to vacationers and see peak use in summer; their lower occupancy rates indicate more pronounced off-seasons and perhaps less tourist draw overall than Sedona/Flagstaff.
In terms of demand and seasonality: Sedona and Flagstaff enjoy relatively steady demand across seasons. Sedona’s natural beauty draws visitors year-round (though spring and fall are peak), and Flagstaff benefits from both summer hiking and winter skiing crowds. AirDNA’s Seasonality score (higher = more year-round stability) is 90 for Flagstaff, extremely high, suggesting its occupancy is well-distributed through the year (Flagstaff’s peak summer and winter months are balanced by decent shoulder-season occupancy). Sedona’s seasonality score is lower (68), indicating more fluctuation (indeed, Sedona sees big spikes during spring wildflower season and fall colors). Scottsdale has the lowest seasonality score (55), meaning it’s highly seasonal – Scottsdale packs in bookings during the winter high season (waste management open, Barrett-Jackson, spring training, etc.), but its summer occupancy plummets due to the desert heat. Payson’s seasonality score of 75 implies moderate seasonality, more stable than Scottsdale, but not as balanced as Flagstaff. This aligns with what we saw: Payson’s summer vs. winter swings are large but not extreme (e.g. 60% vs 37% occupancy). Show Low’s seasonality (60) is a bit more pronounced; Show Low is almost exclusively a summer lake escape, with very slow winters (it lacks the skiing draw that Flagstaff has).
Regulatory climates also differ across these markets. All Arizona cities now require STR owners to register or obtain a permit (thanks to SB1168), so in that sense Sedona, Flagstaff, Scottsdale, Payson, and Show Low all mandate licensing and local contacts. However, enforcement and additional rules vary. Sedona, despite resident complaints about STRs, is constrained by state law and thus focuses on permit compliance and nuisance enforcement; AirDNA gives Sedona a relatively high Regulation score of 75/100, indicating investors view the regulatory risk as manageable. Scottsdale likewise has a mid-pack Regulation score (~66). The city enforces its license requirement strictly (with a $250 annual fee and fines for non-compliance), but it remains a STR-friendly environment overall (no caps on licenses, for example). Flagstaff sits similarly, with a regulation score around 69; the city has registration and some safety rules, but has not imposed additional harsh restrictions. Payson and Show Low, by contrast, score lower (Regulation ~63 and 60), reflecting the new layers of local rules (Payson’s town license, Gila County permit, and in Show Low’s case, a city ordinance as of 2024 requiring not only registration but also things like exterior emergency contact postings). In short, investors in Sedona/Scottsdale/Flagstaff can expect a stable regulatory environment with standard compliance steps, whereas Payson and Show Low have a few extra hoops to jump through – not prohibitive, but notable for our clients to budget time and cost for compliance.
Overall performance ranking: Scottsdale and Sedona clearly lead in STR revenue metrics, thanks to stronger demand and guest willingness to pay premium rates (their annual revenues average $39k and $45k per listing, respectively, versus ~$24k in Payson). Flagstaff is a solid performer as well, with an annual avg around $31k. Payson and Show Low, with annual averages ~$21–24k, lag those larger markets. However, investment perspective requires looking at both revenue and cost: A Sedona home might gross twice what a Payson rental does, but Sedona’s median home prices (often $800k+ for a vacation rental) are much higher than Payson’s (~$500k). Thus, Payson’s relatively affordable real estate can mean better return on investment for each dollar spent, provided the demand holds steady. It’s telling that AirDNA’s Market Score (a composite of demand, revenue growth, seasonality, etc.) is 91 for Flagstaff, the highest in AZ, reflecting high demand and growth, and a strong 84 for Sedona. Whereas Payson comes in at 64 (“Good”). This suggests that while Payson is a viable STR market, it’s not (yet) a breakout star. For context, Scottsdale’s market score is 67 and Show Low’s is 53 (“Okay”). Payson sits in the middle, a decent performer with room to improve if demand grows. As northern Arizona tourism evolves (e.g., if Payson adds more events or attractions), there is potential for Payson’s STR metrics to approach Flagstaff’s. Until then, investors should calibrate expectations: Payson will generally underperform Sedona/Scottsdale on occupancy and ADR, but it can still deliver healthy returns, especially given the lower cost of entry and less competition in the STR space compared to those crowded markets.
By combining the data-driven insights above with local knowledge, CAAR realtors can confidently guide clients in evaluating STR investment opportunities in Payson and surrounding areas. The Payson STR market is growing and maturing, and with informed strategy and compliance, it can provide a rewarding investment and experience for property owners and visiting guests alike. In summary: focus on quality properties, stay on top of seasonal strategy, follow the rules, and your clients will be well-positioned to succeed in the Payson short-term rental market.
Sources: Data and charts derived from AirDNA MarketMinder for Payson and other AZ markets, AirDNA/CAAR research documents on STR regulations, and AirDNA/AirROI analytics for revenue, occupancy, and rates. All information is up to date as of November 2025.
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