At the December National Association of REALTORS® Real Estate Forecast Summit, NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun shared an outlook signaling renewed opportunity for the housing market in 2026.

Yun noted that lower mortgage rates, improving affordability, and a gradual rise in housing inventory are expected to bring more buyers back into the market after several years of constrained activity. NAR is forecasting a 14 percent increase in existing home sales nationwide in 2026, marking a meaningful rebound for the industry.

Mortgage rates remain the key driver. If rates fall to approximately 6 percent in 2026, as projected, that full percentage-point decline from early 2025 levels could unlock an estimated 5.5 million additional mortgage-qualified buyers, including approximately 1.6 million renters who may be able to transition into homeownership. “Lower mortgage rates will save the day,” Yun said, while emphasizing that inventory growth will be essential to sustaining momentum.

Yun also cautioned that recovery will vary by market. Areas where housing supply, household incomes, and job growth are better aligned are expected to see stronger results, while other markets may recover more slowly.

The entire video can be watched here:  https://www.nar.realtor/events/nar-real-estate-forecast-summit