Leave It As You Found It: Professional Showing Courtesy in Rim Country
By Dennis R. Riccio
President, Central Arizona Association of REALTORS®
Executive Summary: 2025 at a Glance
A snapshot of how Rim Country functioned as a housing market in 2025.
Detailed charts and ZIP-Code-level analysis follow.
2025 was a year of market normalization. Across Rim Country, buyers had more selection and more time, while sellers faced more price competition than in recent years. As your CAAR President, I observed that the defining feature of 2025 was not volatility, but adjustment: the market became more deliberate and more price-sensitive, while still benefiting from Rim Country’s long-term lifestyle demand.
Rim Country’s 2025 housing market was characterized by stable pricing, slower turnover, and rising inventory. Higher-volume markets such as Payson absorbed the bulk of transactions, while smaller rural ZIP codes showed greater variability. High-country cabin markets, including Forest Lakes and Happy Jack, retained scarcity-driven strength.
The charts in this report are intended to tell the primary story. The narrative below is intentionally concise so the visuals can do the heavy lifting.
Marketing times lengthened across all ZIP codes in 2025, with the slowest turnover occurring in smaller and more rural markets.
Inventory levels moved toward balance in most areas, while several rural ZIP codes crossed into buyer-leaning conditions by year-end.
Each area summary below follows a consistent format: activity, pricing, market speed, and a concise 2025 takeaway. Where sample sizes are small, interpret medians and year-over-year changes directionally.
Key stats (2025): Median sold price ~$421,000 | Average DOM ~133 days | Median DOM ~103 days | Sold-to-list ~97% | Months of inventory ~5.9
Activity: Payson remained the region’s volume leader. Closed sales represented the largest share of Rim Country transactions, though year-over-year activity eased as inventory increased.
Pricing: Median pricing remained generally stable across a wide range of housing types, reflecting both local housing demand and second-home interest.
Market speed and negotiations: Days on market lengthened and price reductions became more common. Sellers who priced at market value tended to sell; sellers anchored to prior-cycle pricing often needed time and adjustments.
2025 takeaway: Payson shifted toward balance, rewarding preparation and accurate pricing more than simple market entry.
85544 Pine–Strawberry Area
Key stats (2025): Median sold price ~$472,500 | Average DOM ~148 days | Median DOM ~119 days | Sold-to-list ~96% | Months of inventory ~6.8
Activity: Turnover slowed from peak years, with listings accumulating more quickly than closings during parts of 2025.
Pricing: Median prices held near prior-year levels, reflecting sustained demand for cabins and lifestyle properties.
Market speed and negotiations: Marketing times increased and buyers negotiated more frequently, particularly on properties needing updates or priced aggressively.
2025 takeaway: The cabin market remained valuable but became more selective; turnkey properties outperformed aspirational pricing.
85553 Tonto Basin Area
Key stats (2025): Median sold price ~$254,000 | Average DOM ~162 days | Median DOM ~116 days | Sold-to-list ~95% (est.) | Months of inventory ~7.9
Activity: Sales volume declined and relative inventory increased, producing one of the clearest slowdowns in Rim Country.
Pricing: Median and average prices drifted modestly lower, driven more by reduced buyer demand than distress.
Market speed and negotiations: Discounts and concessions were more common, especially on listings that entered the market above value.
2025 takeaway: Buyer-leaning conditions dominated many segments, rewarding aggressive pricing and strong presentation.
85554 Young Area
Key stats (2025): Median sold price ~$357,000 | Average DOM ~180+ days | Median DOM ~137 days | Sold-to-list ~97% | Months of inventory ~11.1
Activity: Transaction volume remained very limited, making year-over-year comparisons highly sensitive to individual sales.
Pricing: Prices showed wide variability due to occasional high-end or acreage transactions that skew averages.
Market speed and negotiations: Marketing times were long, with large gaps between original list and sale price reflecting limited buyer depth.
2025 takeaway: Young remained a specialty market requiring patience, pricing discipline, and realistic expectations.
85931 Forest Lakes Area
Key stats (2025): Median sold price ~$541,000 | Average DOM ~124 days | Median DOM ~107 days | Sold-to-list ~97% | Months of inventory ~2.4
Activity: Inventory remained constrained relative to demand, with very limited year-end availability.
Pricing: Median and average prices reflected the specific mix of cabins sold, including higher-end transactions that reinforced a scarcity premium.
Market speed and negotiations: Well-maintained cabins continued to draw interest more quickly than broader Rim Country norms.
2025 takeaway: Scarcity preserved seller leverage, positioning Forest Lakes as a niche seller’s market within a normalizing region.
86024 Happy Jack Area
Key Stats (2025): Median Sold Price ~$540,000 | Average Dom ~152 Days | Median Dom ~133 Days | Sold-To-List ~96% | Months Of Inventory ~5.2
Activity: Sales activity remained steady but slower than the prior year as inventory increased modestly.
Pricing: Median pricing held firm, supported by elevation, cabin appeal, and second-home demand.
Market speed and negotiations: Days on market increased and negotiation became more common, though quality listings continued to perform.
2025 takeaway: Happy Jack operated as a balanced cabin market where condition and realistic pricing drove outcomes.
Closed sales declined across most Rim Country markets in 2025, signaling a cooling in transaction volume rather than a collapse in pricing.
Closed Sales by ZIP: 2025 vs. 2024
Closed sales declined across most Rim Country sub-markets in 2025 compared to 2024, reflecting a broader cooling in transaction volume. The Payson area (85541) recorded 555 closed sales in 2025, down from 574 in 2024. Pine–Strawberry (85544) increased modestly from 140 to 149 sales. Tonto Basin (85553) declined from 49 to 34 sales, while Young (85554) rose slightly from 6 to 8 sales. Forest Lakes (85931) decreased from 12 to 10 sales, and Happy Jack (86024) edged down from 53 to 52 sales. Overall, the data shows reduced activity in most markets, with smaller, rural ZIPs exhibiting greater year-to-year volatility.
Sale-to-list ratios remained historically strong in 2025, but softened from peak levels as price negotiations and concessions returned to normal practice.
These trends defined how Rim Country functioned as a housing market in 2025.
✓ Normalization returned as inventory increased and urgency declined
✓ Micro-markets diverged, led by scarcity-driven cabin areas
✓ Prices plateaued rather than accelerating or correcting sharply
✓ Negotiation became routine again across most ZIP codes
✓ Buyer behavior split between cash/equity and rate-sensitive households
2025 rewarded patience, preparation, and selectivity.
2025 rewarded strategy, not momentum.
Buyers benefited from increased selection and a slower pace. In many areas, shoppers could compare options, complete inspections without extreme pressure, and negotiate on price, repairs, or concessions when listings lingered. That said, the best homes still sold first. Buyers who were prepared, realistic about condition, and decisive when a well-priced home hit the market generally did best.
2025 rewarded strategy, not momentum.
Sellers entered a more competitive environment. In 2025, it was not enough to list; it mattered how you listed. The most successful sellers priced from current comparables, addressed condition issues proactively, and responded quickly to market feedback. Overpricing tended to produce long days on market and larger reductions. When sellers aligned price and presentation, Rim Country still delivered strong outcomes and preserved substantial homeowner equity.
As your CAAR President, my consistent message in 2025 was simple: let the data lead. When sellers and buyers treated pricing, condition, and timing as strategic choices instead of assumptions, transactions moved smoothly even in a cooler market.
The best baseline for 2026 is that Rim Country begins the year in a more balanced position than the recent past.
If financing conditions improve, some of the demand that hesitated in 2025 could return, tightening supply in the most popular segments. If rates remain elevated, expect a continuation of 2025’s patterns: selective buyers, longer marketing times, and stable pricing with small, area-specific movements.
What to watch:
(1) spring listing volume,
(2) whether days on market compress from late-2025 levels, and
(3) the spread between original list and sold price. Those three indicators will tell us quickly if 2026 is re-accelerating or simply stabilizing.
Dennis R Riccio
President, Central Arizona Association of REALTORS®
Market analysis created using 2024, 2025 MLS data (FlexMLS) for Rim Country ZIP codes 85541, 85544, 85553, 85554, 85931, and 86024.
All statistics are derived from MLS data and reflect closed residential transactions only.
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