Payson Water Resources Update
Is Rim Country Following the National Trend?
By Dennis Riccio | President, Central Arizona Association of REALTORS®
Mortgage rates have moved sharply higher in recent weeks, challenging affordability and raising a timely question for real estate professionals: Is the national slowdown in buyer activity becoming visible in the communities served by CAAR?
Freddie Mac reported a 7.40% average 30-year fixed mortgage rate on October 8, up from 7.28% the prior week and 6.30% one year earlier. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), which uses a different survey methodology, reported a 7.49% contract rate for conforming 30-year mortgages in its survey released October 7.
Zillow’s September 2026 market report found newly pending home sales down 8.5% nationally from a year earlier. The MBA also reported that unadjusted purchase mortgage applications for the week ending October 2 were 15% below the same week in 2025. These measures are not interchangeable, but together they indicate heightened pressure on homebuyer activity.
A preliminary review of 2,934 residential listing records in an October 10 Flexmls export covering the selected Rim Country and surrounding market areas identified 210 listings with pending dates in July–September 2026, versus 254 during the same months in 2025—a 17.3% decline. September alone recorded 63 versus 74, a 14.9% decrease.
Figure 1. Recorded pending dates, July–September. Source: CAAR Flexmls export, October 10, 2026. Preliminary and subject to historical-status limitations.
Importantly, the decline spans July, August and September, suggesting that local contract activity was weakening before the most recent increase in mortgage rates. The data do not establish that higher rates caused the decline. Seasonal buying patterns, inventory, pricing, financing and the discretionary nature of many second-home purchases could all contribute.
Homes and mountain landscape in the greater Rim Country area. Photo provided for CAAR.
Closed sales largely reflect decisions made weeks earlier. Pending dates can offer a more timely window into new demand, although an exported listing’s pending-date field may not preserve every historical contract event, particularly after a fall-through or relisting. This review counts one recorded pending date per exported listing and is not an official accounting of every contract signed.
Figure 2. Monthly listings with recorded pending dates, January–September. Source: October 10 Flexmls export; preliminary.
The most useful questions over the remainder of October are whether new contracts continue to trail last year, whether more sellers are reducing prices or offering concessions, and whether financing difficulties or other factors are increasing contract fall-throughs. Members should also distinguish financed buyers from cash or high-equity purchasers, whose sensitivity to mortgage-rate changes may differ.
In a market with significant retirement and second-home activity, some purchasers have the option of waiting. That can translate into slower decisions and longer marketing periods even without an immediate or comparable drop in sale prices.
The national data show mounting affordability pressure and softer pending activity. The preliminary local figures suggest weakening contract activity as well, but they are not sufficient to establish the effect of the latest rate increase on Rim Country. Comparing the full October results with October 2025, alongside fall-throughs, new listings and price changes, will provide a clearer picture.
For CAAR members, the practical response is to use current data, review financing expectations early and help clients distinguish a shifting negotiation environment from a verified change in home values.
Freddie Mac, Primary Mortgage Market Survey, October 8, 2026: https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
Mortgage Bankers Association, Weekly Applications Survey, October 7, 2026: https://www.mba.org/news-and-research/newsroom/news/2026/10/07/mortgage-applications-decrease-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey
Zillow Research, September 2026 Market Report, published October 6: https://www.zillow.com/research/september-2026-market-report/
Local: CAAR Flexmls residential export supplied October 10, 2026; 2,934 unique listing numbers, all available statuses. Includes selected surrounding markets such as Heber/Overgaard; counts use the Pending Date field and are not a complete event-history audit.
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